It has been difficult to follow and certainly to verify the movement of weapons to Ukraine since the supplemental appropriation became available.

It would seem the Pentagon planned for the availability of the money and went into action quickly to send weapons but over the course of this war there have been many instances where press releases implied actions that had not taken place.  So, while we know Ukraine needs weapons and ammunition “yesterday” I don’t think we know for sure where vital weapons and other support are in the delivery process.

Also, there is ongoing concern about restrictions on the use of American-provided weapons.  Since the outset of this Administration, there has been the very publicly stated position that weapons given to Ukraine were not to be used to fire onto Russian territory.

Recently some officials have implied there was no such restriction.

In Kyiv this week Secretary of State Blinken “seemed” to suggest a policy move, something like “we cannot urge or promote Ukraine to firing into Russia, but it is Ukraine’s decision.”

But back in Washington, several Administration officials said the prohibition on using American-supplied weapons to hit targets inside Russia had not changed.

And, who knows what is being said in private official channels?

In Friday’s Wall Street Journal, the editors spoke to all these issues and I believe their editorial is important and should be read and considered seriously.

The Wall Street Journal

Will Biden Now Step Upon Ukraine?

His limits on Kyiv are a strategy for defeat on the installment plan.

By

The Editorial Board

May 16, 2024 5:44 pm ET

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Vladimir Putin’s military is back on the offensive in Ukraine, producing another round of ugly battlefield scenes. Yet President Biden’s strategy, even after a cash infusion from Congress, looks like a plan for Ukraine to lose as slowly as possible. Is the Commander in Chief prepared to act like this is the world “inflection point” he invokes in speeches?

The Russians are making gains in Ukraine outside Kharkiv, albeit slowly and with no regard for the lives of their own soldiers. The Russian foray over Ukraine’s northern border may be a prelude to a larger offensive. The goal seems to be to spread Ukraine’s forces—already short on manpower—thin across a front that stretches some 600 miles.

Mr. Putin’s military is leveling the north with artillery and glide bombs. The Russian air force can launch these glide bombs from across the Russian border, without entering Ukrainian airspace. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that glide bombs with 40 to 60 kilometer ranges threaten more than 42,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory—an area larger than the Netherlands.

Ukraine has few to no options to strike back, and that’s a product of Mr. Biden’s policy. The President has precluded Ukraine from using American weapons to hit sovereign Russian territory. The practical effect of this is to offer the Russian military a safe haven. The Russians can build up troops, supplies and weapons near Ukraine. Mr. Putin can then deploy scarce defensive systems elsewhere, confident anything inside Russia is safe, courtesy of Mr. Biden’s preconditions.

The Biden Administration is touting its weapons packages since Congress passed new aid funding last month, including artillery and air defense ammo. Ukraine needs the rounds for the front lines and air-defense munitions to protect its military and civilian infrastructure from Russian missiles.

But more air defenses aren’t a strategy for Ukraine to prevail, or even improve its leverage at an eventual negotiating table with Mr. Putin. It’s a plan for Ukrainian defeat on the installment plan, which would be a failure for Mr. Biden—and the United States.

Mr. Biden will have to lift his embargo on Ukraine striking inside Russia. That will also mean providing the precision long-range missiles, in sufficient quantities, that can turn back the Russian advances and put Russian forces in Crimea at risk.

Mr. Putin has made veiled threats of escalation every time the U.S. has provided new weapons—only to back down. The Biden Team might worry more about the consequences of allowing Mr. Putin to wield nuclear blackmail to scare the U.S. out of defending its interests.

The larger strategic picture is worth noting, as Mr. Putin visits China and renews his “no limits” partnership with Xi Jinping. President Biden said in April that “China is providing components and know-how to boost Russia’s defense production.” Yet so far Mr. Biden hasn’t punished Beijing for ignoring U.S. warnings not to assist Russia’s war effort.

Mr. Putin is doubling down on his war aims and turning for help everywhere from Iran to North Korea. Mr. Xi’s involvement underscores that the war is about a consolidating anti-American axis, not merely Ukraine.

Congress granted Mr. Biden his military aid request. If his limits on Ukraine now lead to a Russian victory, he won’t be able to roll out his usual routine of blaming MAGA Republicans. Americans will know where the buck stops.

ROBERT MCCONNELL
Co-Founder, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation
Director of External Affairs, Friends of Ukraine Network
The introduction is Mr. McConnell’s and does not necessarily represent the views of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation or the Friends of Ukraine Network.

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