This is Not Just Putin’s War

“This is not the Russian people’s war. This is Putin’s war”. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this slogan depicting a sort of total alienation between the Russian people and their president has been promoted by many. Some have gone so far as to argue against Western sanctions, as they affect the “innocent” Russian people and not only the Russian government, described as the sole culprit for the war. But do Russians actually oppose the war? And what does that mean for us?

A very powerful instrument to gauge Russians’ support of the war are social polls. According to government-controlled polling agency VTsIOM, around 76 percent of Russians support the decision to launch a “special military operation” in Ukraine, whereas just 15 percent oppose it. Information coming from the Kremlin has a reputation of not being trust-worthy, so one may be tempted to ignore this data.

However, the results from non-governmental polling agencies paint a similar picture: according to independent sociologists, around 71 percent of Russians feel “proud” of the war. The independent polling agency Levada Center has also run a survey, but eventually decided not to publish the results “in order not to legitimize the war.” Levada’s scientific director Lev Gudkov, however, has revealed that around two-thirds of respondents support the war, while a little more than a quarter condemns it. Another recent study has further shown that the percentage of Russians who believe that the country is moving in the right direction increased from 52 percent in February to 69 percent in March. Putin’s approval ratings grew from 71 percent in February to 83 percent in March.

Looking at this data, it appears clear that a vast majority of Russians support the war. Some have contested such a conclusion, arguing that social polling in Russia is not reliable, as many respondents might refuse to answer for fear of a government retaliation. However, although the real figure of Russians supporting the war is likely lower, the “fear” effect should not be exaggerated either. Lev Gudkov has stated that only a minor portion of respondents refrain from answering. According to him, many underestimate how successful the Kremlin was over the years in creating a new “mass consciousness” favorable to the government, which results in a real extensive support for the war today.

It is exactly this nationalistic “mass consciousness” that should make us fearful of Russia’s future. Most Russians approve of the “special operation” and this cannot be ascribed only to information isolation. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, the “foreign agent” law was yet to be applied on a vast-scale, and Russian independent media still had a large platform on which to operate. Yet, this did not prevent Russians from enthusiastically praising the illegal and unjustifiable annexation of Crimea, following which Putin’s approval ratings skyrocketed tо 86 percent. Even now, despite being presented with large evidence of the horrors of the war by their Ukrainian relatives, many Russians still prefer to believe state-propagandist Dmitry Kiselev on Rossiya 1.

Convincing ourselves that this is just “Putin’s war” means denying reality and would bring us back to where we are now in a few decades. Even if Putin's regime falls, the West would need to act in two directions: first, making sure Ukraine is reconstructed, fully integrates in the European system, and develops as a democratic, prosperous and strong state that would serve as a model and a deterrent for its neighbor; second, the West should assist Russia with a new democratic development - if Russia ever decided to follow this path - which would entail a thorough and critical reflection on the country’s past, present and future, abandoning imperialistic ambitions for good and deconstructing the absurd world created by the propaganda.

It is unlikely that current Russian society is ready for such changes. After having their mind poisoned by state media and a toxic nationalistic subculture for decades, adult Russians will hardly alter their worldview. However, the new generations and the ones yet to come do present a chance for a better future: as the polls suggest, although most are “indifferent” to the events in Ukraine, young respondents are also the most likely to express negative emotions towards the war. Only future Russians and the way they approach Russian history can transform the country and prevent the outbreak of new wars. Just like president Zelensky said in a recent interview with Russian journalists:

“The war will not end with the end of military activities [...] the war is in the heads. War will end when everyone is willing to accept that this was a big mistake of the Russian government that led to a catastrophe for the Russian people and a tragedy in the relation between the Ukrainian and the Russian peoples[...]  We need to think about our children and grandchildren, there is nothing left to think about ourselves. Today, adults like me and you will not forgive each other anything. I do not believe in this anymore. I simply saw how Russians reacted and the percentage of support for Putin [...] But we have to fight for our children and grandchildren. It is a big chance.”

In this cartoon from social media, the sign above the fence says, "free society".