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Alerted to Shankar Narayan by Friends of Ukraine Network’s Ambassador Sandy Vershbow I believe his latest two articles are worth calling to your attention.
Lesson №1 for Putin: Never Mess with Finland
Finland. Finland. Finland.
You beauty.
That was some of the boldest action I’ve seen in recent times. I’ll place Finland’s resolve over the past 100 hours right alongside Britain and Poland tearing up diplomatic playbooks in January 2023 to push the Western alliance into delivering tanks to Ukraine.
Yes, nearly two years ago. After a long lull, we now have a European nation daring Putin and emerging decisively on top.
Stunning details have emerged following the seizure of the Eagle S by Finnish authorities. The tanker, which departed Russia’s port of Ust-Luga loaded with oil, was en route to Port Said, Egypt. While passing through the Gulf of Finland, it dropped its anchor and dragged it along the seabed, severing multiple undersea cables, including a power cable linking Finland and Estonia.
The Eagle S then made a suspicious U-turn, retracing its path as it continued damaging cables, before veering back to its original route. The maneuvering suggests they were seeking confirmation — possibly from someone outside the ship — that their sabotage was successful. The vessel was also carrying sophisticated spying equipment.
Finland’s Coast Guard intercepted the tanker just before it could target another critical submarine power line, Estlink 1, while Estonia deployed naval forces to protect the infrastructure. There’s little doubt that Russian commanders in Kaliningrad were aware of the ship’s mission — and of the possibility it might be caught.
If the Russians had patrol vessels in the area and still failed to intervene to protect a cargo ship loaded with their spy equipment, they are absolute fools. If they didn’t have any patrol vessels or warships nearby, they are grossly incompetent. Either way, they’ve been caught red-handed, and their options to escape this predicament are almost nonexistent.
Finland, on the other hand, knew the risks involved in seizing the ship and bringing it to a Finnish port. Russian warships could have been deployed to block the seizure, potentially igniting a major confrontation. Despite this, Finland pressed ahead, boarding the ship and taking control. It was likely all over before the regional Russian commander could even issue orders to respond.
The Russians had every reason to stop this ship from being seized — it was packed with spy equipment.
According to Lloyd’s List, a global maritime and shipping industry publication, the Eagle S “had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a spy ship for Russia.”
Lloyd’s List reported that an unauthorized individual, not a seafarer, was found aboard the 20-year-old tanker Eagle S. The individual brought listening and recording equipment onboard in large portable suitcases, along with laptops equipped with Turkish and Russian keyboards, during port calls in Türkiye and Russia. The equipment, placed on the bridge and the “monkey island” (the ship’s highest point), was used to record NATO naval and aircraft radio frequencies.
The recordings were later offloaded in Russia for analysis. Sources claimed that Russian, Turkish, and Indian radio officers operated the equipment. Additionally, Eagle S allegedly dropped sensor-like devices in the English Channel during transit.
Now, all that spying equipment is in Finland’s possession. Russia, heavily reliant on its shadow tanker fleet — of which the Eagle S was a part — to move oil and bypass the €60-per-barrel price cap imposed by the West, has been exposed. The Russians should have done everything possible to keep this espionage operation under wraps.
Instead, the world now knows these oil tankers aren’t just transporting crude — they’re doubling as spy ships for Russia. This revelation leaves NATO and Europe with no choice but to ramp up interceptions of these vessels to check for spying activities. Patrols in the Baltic Sea, the Gulf of Finland, and the Danish Straits will undoubtedly increase, and every movement by the shadow fleet will be scrutinized.
Putin now faces a monumental struggle to circumvent sanctions. Every intercepted tanker will be questioned for its insurance documents. Without proper insurance, the vessel can be seized. If insured, the oil must be sold at or below €60 per barrel — further choking Russia’s revenues.
This string of events has left Putin in dire straits. To regain any momentum in the Western world for negotiations, he’ll need a significant shift in fortunes. But everything over the past week has further eroded his standing.
Russian troops already faced global condemnation for blowing up a passenger plane. Reports suggest Russia denied the plane emergency landing rights at their airports, forcing the pilots to fly over the Caspian Sea toward Kazakhstan. In a heroic act, the pilots lost their lives but still managed to save 29 passengers.
The world now knows that cargo ships leaving Russian ports are doubling as spy ships and even tripling as infrastructure sabotage vessels. What kind of momentum does that give Putin in negotiations? None — it only amplifies his negative profile. Finland and Estonia now have even more reasons, backed by solid evidence, to derail any peace talks that might swing in Putin’s favor.
For Putin, a bad month has only grown worse. NATO’s newest member has shown that courage still carries weight. When a reporter asked Finland’s Police Chief if he planned to contact Russia about the incident, his response was curt: “No. We will not.”
Putin should have never messed with Finland. Ever.
They gave Stalin a bloody nose. Now they’ve done the same to Putin. And with this, the path to dismantling Russia’s shadow fleet has opened up at the perfect time.
Ukraine Takes a Major Step Toward Challenging Russian Air Superiority
Begins to Take Out Russian Glidebombs
A few weeks ago, a Ukrainian military blogger reported a sharp reduction in Russian glide bomb attacks, but the reason was unclear. At first, I assumed the slowdown was linked to the Biden administration’s decision to relax long-range missile restrictions on Ukraine, leading to Russian jets retreating to deeper bases. The assumption was that the Russians were adjusting to flying from these bases, and glide bomb attacks would pick up again after a brief lull.
However, it seems the decline in glide bomb attacks is due to Ukraine’s innovation. The Institute for the Study of War reported earlier today that “Ukrainian forces are using machine guns and electronic warfare (EW) to down and divert guided glide bombs, as their lack of a thermal signature prevents portable air defense systems from targeting them.”
Russian glide bomb strikes have devastated Ukrainian frontlines, marking one of the few areas where Russia has consistently innovated since launching its first glide bomb in March 2023. They started on a small scale, gradually ramping up to over 150 bombs dropped in a single day.
Glide bombs are essentially non-powered bombs that rely on aerodynamics to glide toward their target once released from an aircraft. Unlike regular bombs, they are equipped with wings, guidance systems, and sometimes control surfaces, allowing them to “glide” to their target. Some use advanced guidance systems that combine inertial guidance with GPS for improved accuracy.
These glide bombs differ significantly from missiles launched by fighter jets.
Missiles are self-propelled and designed for long-range precision strikes, while glide bombs have a shorter range of around 70 to 80 kilometers. This limited range forces Russian jets to get closer to the frontline before launching their bombs. Typically, Russian jets approach within 40 kilometers of the Ukrainian front, release the bombs, and then scramble back. The glide bombs’ lack of a thermal signature makes them difficult for air-defense systems to target.
The best option for Ukraine would be to take out the fighter jets, rather than trying to intercept the glide bombs themselves.
However, Russian fighter jets remain 40 kilometers inside enemy territory, out of range of Ukraine’s short-range air-defense systems. To counter this, Ukraine would need to deploy long-range or medium-range air-defense systems closer to the frontlines. Given that the front stretches over 800 miles, Ukraine would need a substantial number of these systems to effectively challenge Russian jets.
While the West could provide Ukraine with more air-defense systems, doing so would grant Ukraine greater control of the skies, ultimately leading to Russia’s defeat — an outcome unimaginable for many. As a result, Ukraine’s air-defense capacity remains less than optimal, allowing Russia to maintain air superiority and continue its glide bomb attacks.
This leeway has enabled Russia to relentlessly drop glide bombs, with an average of 100 bombs a day this year. These attacks played a crucial role in Russia’s capture of Avdiivka in February 2024. Russian forces pounded Ukrainian defensive positions in the pocket, while ground troops encircled the area from three directions. The Ukrainian defense, already weakened by a lack of ammunition, could not hold the line. Cracks appeared, and the Ukrainian forces were forced to retreat. Without the continuous glide bomb attacks, Russia would not have been able to take control of the town and may not have pushed further into the Donetsk region.
Glide bombs have allowed Russia to impose a heavy cost on Ukrainian armed forces, and until now, Ukraine had no effective counter. That helplessness has now ended. Ukraine is using electronic warfare equipment and mobile machine gunners to bring down the glide bombs.
This shift will have a significant impact on the number of casualties among Russian forces. Without the constant pressure of glide bomb strikes, Ukraine can strengthen its ground defenses. Due to a severe shortage of armored personnel carriers and vehicles, Russia is relying on dismounted assaults to engage Ukrainian frontlines. Soldiers often advance on foot, in golf carts, motorcycles, or even vans. Ukrainian defenders, now free from constantly fearing the sound of incoming glide bombs, can destroy these forces from their fortified positions.
The situation will improve even further once Ukraine receives its first squadron of Mirage jets. The Ukrainian Air Force will be able to use the Mirage 2000s to target Russian fighter jets, which have been getting closer to the frontline to launch glide bombs. With ground forces countering the glide bombs and the Air Force engaging Russian jets, Russian glide bomb sorties will be under pressure, alleviating some of the strain on Ukrainian troops in the trenches.
ROBERT MCCONNELL
Co-Founder, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation
Director of External Affairs, Friends of Ukraine Network
The introduction is Mr. McConnell’s and does not necessarily represent the views of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation or those of the Friends of Ukraine Network (FOUN).