Ukraine’s partners increase security assistance as threat of Russian invasion grows

In the second half of January, the Joint Forces Operation reported more than a dozen ceasefire violations on the part of Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine. Two Ukrainian soldiers were injured as a result of occupation aggression.

The past week saw a continued diplomatic push from the West amid Russia’s intensifying threat to Ukraine, including the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus on January 18, weeks before military drills scheduled for February 10-20 are set to begin.

On January 17, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace informed parliament of the UK’s decision to provide Ukraine with a new security assistance package, including nearly 2,000 short-range anti-tank missiles, two Royal Air Force Boeing C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft, and almost 30 instructors sent to provide training to Ukrainian armed forces. The next day, Canada sent a small number of special force operators to Ukraine, and on January 21, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a $120 million loan to Kyiv to help Ukraine sustain Russian pressure.

Several other countries announced support for Ukraine, including the Czech Republic, which emphasized its readiness to support Ukraine with defensive capabilities on January 20. The next day, Estonia confirmed its plan to send Javelin anti-tank missile systems to Kyiv, and Latvia and Lithuania also declared that they would send Stinger anti-aircraft systems. The Dutch foreign minister Wopke Hoekstra also said The Netherlands were ready to consider a Ukrainian request of assistance. Germany, however, continues to deny requests for aid and block other countries’ efforts to provide lethal aid to Ukraine. Most recently, Berlin blocked Estonia’s request to transfer to Kyiv 122mm howitzers that were manufactured in the German Democratic Republic.

On January 19, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv. The next day, Blinken traveled to Berlin to meet with top diplomats from Germany, France, and the UK, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Then, Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on January 21. Their 90-minute meeting ended with no new developments, but the two diplomats agreed to further dialogue.

On January 22, the British government accused the Kremlin of plotting a coup to install a pro-Moscow government in Ukraine. The UK Foreign Office named former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as a potential candidate for Russia’s presidential pick. The next day, with tensions reaching their highest point yet, the US State Department ordered non-essential employees and diplomats’ family members to leave Kyiv.