Biden meets with Putin, Zelensky amid rising concerns about a Russian invasion of Ukraine

Between December 5 and 11, the Joint Forces Operation in eastern Ukraine reported 33 ceasefire violations on the part of Russian-backed forces. Three Ukrainian soldiers were injured as a result of occupation aggression.

President Zelensky visited frontline positions in Donbas on December 6 as part of commemorations of the 30^thanniversary of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This past week has been dominated by reports about how the US and European allies are prepared to enact “significant and severe” sanctions in the case of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The most severe measure currently being considered is barring Russia from the SWIFT international payment system that Russia is heavily reliant on.

On December 7, Biden and Putin held a two-hour video call about the recent buildup of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border. Biden urged Putin to de-escalate the situation and warned that an invasion of Ukraine would trigger harsh economic sanctions, but the talks concluded without definitive commitments or resolutions from either side. That same day, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleskiy Reznikov discussed the prospects of invasion in an interview with CNN: “I don’t believe that Russia will have a victory in Ukraine. It’s different. It will be a really bloody massacre, and Russian guys will also come back in coffins.”

On December 9, Biden and Zelensky held a 90-minute phone call, during which the US and Ukrainian heads of state discussed the content of Biden’s meeting with Putin, possible formats for resolving the conflict in Donbas, and reforms in Ukraine. Zelensky’s chief of staff reported that “the US has decided to take an active role in the peace process.”

While there continue to be reports about Russian buildup of military forces and weaponry along the Ukrainian border, details about Russian maritime posturing are also emerging: the Ukrainian Navy’s command stated on December 10 on Facebook that “the Russian Federation has blocked about 70% of the Azov Sea.” Russia has issued navigational warnings and announced an artillery fire drill to be held in areas near Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Henichesk.