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Report: Trump’s return and the fate of Ukraine
Report Author: Luca Iasinschi
Talk Information:
Title: Trump’s return and the fate of Ukraine
Date: 2/24/2025
Speakers:
1. Fiona Hill
a. Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, The Brookings Institution
2. Constanze Stelzenmüller
a. Director and Senior Fellow, Center on the United Sates and Europe, The Brookings Institution
3. Anastasiia Lapatina
a. Co-host “Escalation”; Ukraine Fellow, Lawfare
4. Tyler McBrien
a. Co-host “Escalation”; Managing Editor, Lawfare
5. Benjamin Wittes (Moderator)
a. Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, The Brookings Institution; Co-Founder and Editor-In-Chief, Lawfare
Summary:
Trump’s return and the fate of Ukraine was a panel discussion at The Brookings Institution involving five different speakers and focused on the impacts of the Trump administration’s rhetoric on relationships within Europe and Ukraine.
The most profound realization that these past weeks have given us, the speakers agreed, is that the presence of the United States as a leader on the international stage is over. According to both Fiona Hill and Constanze Stelzenmüller, Vice-President Vance’s speech in Munich on February 14th claiming that Europe’s most pressing issue was mass migration and criticizing supposed European censorship by its governments, had an incredibly negative reaction in Europe. Vice-President Vance’s rhetoric was so off the mark that a former Ukrainian Prime Minister nearly broke into tears upon hearing his speech, Hill recounted. Vice-President Vance’s speech and Defense Secretary Hegseth’s previous speeches had made the United States’ position towards Europe very clear: “You are no longer a priority.” As a result of these speeches and other rhetoric from the Trump administration, the entire dialogue about the United States in Europe had shifted towards regarding it as an enemy. This change in policy is especially shocking for Europe’s leaders as their entire lives have existed with the U.S. being a “benevolent” partner, but that is clearly no longer the case, explained Stelzenmüller. The United States as a beacon of freedom and democracy has vanished. During the U.S.’ absence, China, which has been quietly supporting Russia, is lending a stabilizing hand to Europe providing assurances that it will be there for Europe when the conflict is over. What U.S. policies towards Ukraine and Russia will look like exactly, only time will tell. But the speakers stressed that tools such as sanctions, Russian frozen assets, Ukrainian NATO and EU membership, and security guarantees were all up in the air. Europe would need to compensate for this uncertainty and countries like the UK have already shown a willingness to do this, stating their preparedness to send troops to Ukraine.
The truly global aspect of this conflict is something that Fiona Hill felt was commonly overlooked. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not only an obvious proxy war, between the West, the U.S., and countries like Iran, China, North Korea, and most obviously Russia, but this conflict represents and impacts countries all over the world. The recent peace talks occurred in Saudi Arabia, involving individuals associated with the negotiations of the Abraham Accords. The war has reduced Russia’s ability to maintain its presence in not only Syria, but within the entirety of Africa. North Korean soldiers are currently fighting in Europe and the peace agreement that is reached will impact the future foreign policies of both Japan and South Korea who have been ardent supporters of Ukraine.
The reaction of Europe to the new Trump administration’s policies has clearly been a negative one, but the question remains if Europe will have learned from the lessons the U.S. has not. Constanze Stelzenmüller felt that despite the many valid criticisms of European aid, such as the fear of escalation greatly delaying crucial weaponry, the Europe of today has changed. From her perspective, it was evident to all Europeans who the enemy was. Europe has been very vocal about Russian disinformation, its interference in almost every European election, the damaging European infrastructure, like the undersea cables, and its responsibility for multiple assassinations in the UK. Hill cited polling from the UK that showed 48% of its citizens prioritizing support for Ukraine, while only roughly 20% wanted to prioritize the relationship with the U.S. Additionally, the absence of American leadership has led many in Europe to begin seriously contemplating the need for Europe to possess nuclear weapons, a large blow to non-proliferation efforts. Countries previously fully committed to non-proliferation, such as Germany and unnamed Eastern European countries have reversed their policies.
The German elections which occurred a day before (February 23, 2025), were also discussed. The outcome of this election had the potential to deal another large blow to Ukrainian support. Thankfully, as expected, the more centrist Conservatives won and their new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, holds both a pro-Ukraine stance as well as a commitment to the trans-Atlantic partnership. A partnership that, Stelzenmüller notes, no longer exists. Unfortunately, the far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) more than doubled its representation in the parliament and Stelzenmüller felt that this election was more of a transition towards the further fragmentation of German politics.
One of the final topics the discussion touched upon was a new podcast called “Escalation,” hosted by Anastasiia Lapatina and Tyler McBrien. The podcast covers the history of the relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine since 1991. Covering topics such as George H.W. Bush’s “Chicken Speech,” the Budapest Memorandum, the Bucharest Memorandum, and more, all with the goal of highlighting the turbulence of this relationship. Tyler McBrien described the U.S.’ relationship since 1991 as having been defined by confusion, betrayal, and disappointment, the Budapest Memorandum being a perfect example. Anastasiia Lapatina also noted that Ukraine was also responsible for this instability as they consistently made themselves look unreliable, corrupt, and undesirable as a strategic and business partner. Within the podcast, there is also an emphasis on the experiences of everyday Ukrainians, with Lapatina describing her experiences in the bunker of a maternity hospital a day after giving birth to her daughter on January 1st of 2024, as Russian bombs flew overhead.