Continued ceasefire violations in Donbas & diplomatic efforts to avert full-scale invasion

Between January 23 and February 5, the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) reported 34 ceasefire violations on the part of Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine. As a result of occupation aggression, six Ukrainian soldiers were injured over the past two weeks. Additionally, the JFO reported that on January 31, Russian-backed forces opened fire in the direction of Svitlodarsk in Donetsk region, injuring a civilian who was fishing in the area.

The JFO also reported two separate instances of occupation troops using UAVs to commit ceasefire violations: on February 2, to drop a VOG explosive at the checkpoint “Hnutovo” in Donetsk, and on February 5, to fire four grenades at the Pavlopol settlement in Donetsk. A local school building was damaged as a result of the latter attack.

Western defense officials reported on January 27 that Russia had sent medical units and blood supplies, which they interpret as final preparations for a large-scale invasion. On February 4, the Black Sea News Monitoring Group noted that six Russian ships from the Baltic and Northern fleets are heading to the Black Sea. Two days later, the Associated Press reported that Russia has amassed at least 70% of its planned military buildup on Ukraine’s border.

On January 30, Ukrainian police detained a criminal group planning to organize mass riots with participants made out to be Ukrainian nationalists. Then, on February 3, US intelligence confirmed that Russia had planned an elaborate false flag operation including fake corpses, Russian-speaking mourning actors, and faked Ukrainian military equipment.

With continued Russian escalation, the West has intensified defense preparations as well as diplomatic efforts. On January 24, Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby announced that up to 8,500 US troops have been put on high alert for a possible deployment to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. Then, on February 2, the Pentagon announced that 3,000 US troops will be deployed to Romania in Poland within the coming days. Three days later, Britain’s Mirror reported that over 100 British elite special forces had been sent to Ukraine to as military advisors.

Several batches of US defense aid—each containing about 80 tons of weapons, including ammunition, missiles, and launchers—have arrived in Ukraine as part of the $200 million defensive aid package authorized by President Biden in December 2021. The most recent batch of weapons (the seventh since January 22) arrived in Kyiv on February 2. Additionally, three Airbus helicopters from France arrived in Odesa on February 5 to enhance border security.

On January 26, the US and NATO delivered separate written responses to—or, rather, rejections of—Russia’s security demands that were deemed non-starters. At Moscow’s request, these responses have not been made public, but they were approved by Kyiv before being delivered to the Kremlin.

The past two weeks has also seen numerous diplomatic meetings to de-escalate tensions. On January 26, representatives of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany met in Paris in a revival of Normandy Format talks. The Normandy Format countries have not met as a whole since 2019. Two days later, French President Macron and President Putin held a phone call, during which Putin criticized the written responses delivered by the US and NATO. Macron and Putin spoke again on the phone on January 31, the same day that the UN Security Council held a contentious special session called by the US to discuss Russia’s continued threat to Ukraine. The next day, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke on the phone with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, urging immediate de-escalation.

Ukraine’s allies have signaled support via official visits to Kyiv and new agreements. Last week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, and Canadian Minister of National Defense Anita Anand visited Ukraine for meetings with President Zelensky and other high-level Ukrainian officials. On February 1, Ukraine, Poland, and the EU announced they were forming a new trilateral partnership; the next day, the US, UK, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland launched the Partnership Fund for a Resilient Ukraine, a UK-led initiative to “improve the delivery of public services and to generate economic opportunities in eastern and southern Ukraine, the areas of the country most affected by Russian aggression.” On February 3, while in Kyiv, Turkish President Erdogan signed a free trade deal with Ukraine, as well as an agreement to increase the production of Bayraktar drones.